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Projected GDP growth in 2019 is 0.85%

Economic outlook

SPE maintains GDP growth projection for the year, inflation was reduced to 3.6%

The Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE / ME) revised to 0.85% the projection for Brazil's Gross Domestic Product growth in 2019, maintaining practically the same previous index, which was 0.81. Inflation projection (IPCA) for 2019 was reduced from 3.8% to 3.6%. The projection, which is part of the macroeconomic indicators of the grid of parameters that underlie the budget process, was released on Tuesday (9/10), in a conference about the Macrofiscal Bulletin , produced by the Secretariat. The Macrofiscal Bulletin highlights the main projections for the year and analyzes the country's macroeconomic and fiscal environment.

During the presentation of the data, the Secretary of Economic Policy, Adolfo Sachsida, pointed out that, although the projection for activity growth in the third quarter was reduced, the improvement projects a recovery of the economy from September, as a response to the initial effects. interest rate cuts, increased confidence and the release of FGTS and PIS / PASEP resources. 

Sachsida stressed, however, that the moment is extremely difficult for the Brazilian economy and stressed the need for the country to urgently resume growth. “We are looking for what Minister Paulo Guedes has always guided us: we have to put Brazil on a long-term sustainable growth trajectory and I believe that from September onwards economic indicators will consistently indicate a recovery in the economy,” he said. stated. 

For this growth, he cited three challenges to be overcome: “An important challenge is the recovery of the country's productivity, because without it there will be no growth; another urgent one would be fiscal adjustment and finally the challenge of international conjuncture. “If we do not recover the economy's productivity, there will be no long-term sustainable growth,” said Sachsida. From 2010 to 2017, said the secretary, “Brazilian productivity had a growth rate of -2.11% per year. It was the accursed inheritance that this government received stemming directly from the wrong policies adopted in the past. While we do not correct the productivity problem, there is no long-term growth, ”he warned. 

“As for the second challenge, even with the harsh adjustment of the current government, the fiscal scenario is still challenging. The new Social Security was a fundamental pact, but a broad agenda is still needed, ”he said. Finally, he pointed out, there is also the conjuncture challenge “The international scenario is delicate. There is a scenario of widespread deceleration with falling growth in several countries, ”he said. According to data from the Bulletin, the world growth projection for 2019 is about 0.4 pp lower than the 2018 growth. 

FGTS

The injection of FGTS resources into the economy, through the Government 's edition of Provisional Measure No. 889  , according to data from the Bulletin, was a determining factor in short-term effects. According to Deputy Secretary of Macroeconomic Policy, Vladimir Teles, among the effects of the new FGTS are the extra annual income produced to the employee with the withdrawal anniversary, a 14th salary, the credit expansion and the effects on the reduction of turnover and informality. increases incomes of the formal worker with a positive impact on the economy, without implying an increase in looting or risk in social policies, such as investment in housing and sanitation, ”he said. 

Immediate Withdrawal enables workers to move up to $ 500 from each FGTS account they have, whether active or inactive, having a substantial effect in the short term. Considering that 81% of the accounts have a balance below R $ 500, there is a high percentage of accounts whose resources can be fully moved. 

According to Caixa data, R $ 28 billion will be released in 2019 and R $ 12 billion in 2020. In total, the amount available equals 0.58% of GDP and 18.6% of the average habitual income of people who were working at the beginning of 2019. The measure will include 96 million workers, representing 46.3% of the Brazilian population.