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Improved economy and increased consumption are expected to boost year-end sales

Trade

Major GDP Influence in the Second Quarter, Trade Should Benefit from New Year's Eve Holidays in a More Positive Economic Context

The improved economic conditions, with reduced interest rates, inflation and the recovery of the labor market have been driving household consumption. Following the 0.2% increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was impacted by a high consumption of Brazilians, the expectation is that trade will continue its positive trajectory with the end of year festivities.

On Wednesday (11), the retail trade registered a rise of 3.6% in August, the fifth consecutive month of growth and the best result for the month in four years. The data were released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and point to a consolidation of consumer expectations on the eve of Children's Day.

Data from the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) point out that the Brazilian is more willing to spend on the commemorative day, influenced by the improvement in the economic environment. "The more favorable conditions of the macroeconomic environment, with falling interest rates, lower inflation and a slight reduction in household indebtedness, allow a recovery in consumer momentum," the survey said.

On average, each person should spend $ 82.50 this year, more than the $ 78.60 earned last year, when the economy was still headed for a more positive field. According to the survey, the desire to spend on Children's Day rose 5 points, and the economy should benefit from the inflow of R $ 7.4 billion in circulation, according to data from the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC).

The same entity bet that this will be the first increase in sales on the anniversary date after two years of decline, in the face of an improvement in a series of important indicators for consumption.

Impulse on hirings

In a context of improving employment prospects, with a drop in the unemployment rate and the creation of 163,400 formal posts this year, the prospect is that temporary hirings due to the end of year holidays, especially Christmas , keep rising.

According to the CNC, the return of consumption and the growth of the economy should generate the hiring of 73,1 thousand temporary jobs in the commerce sector. If this is confirmed, it will be the first time after two years that the commerce registers increase in the number of employees in that period of the year.

Until December, as the entity points out, sales are expected to drive R $ 34.3 billion in the economy, with a 10% growth in the commercial sector. 

Effect measures

This year, the service sector - which encompasses the commercial area - was greatly benefited by the resumption of the economy and by stimuli to consumption.

In addition to more positive economic conditions than in recent years, the consumption of households received an incentive against the withdrawal of the inactive accounts of the FGTS, which injected more than R $ 40 billion into the Brazilian economy.

Source: Government of Brazil, with information from IBGE , FGV  and  CNC