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Economy clears emergency budget reserve and indicates new contingency

Budget

Secretary Waldery Rodrigues relies on improving expectations and economic recovery in the second half

The revision of the macroeconomic parameters led to a reduction in revenues and it was necessary for the Ministry of Economy to announce this Monday (22/7) a new budget contingency to the agencies, in the amount of R $ 1,442.8 billion. The emergency budget reserve - set up in March this year and having been reduced in recent months to cover priorities - was important in reducing the impact of contingency, but not enough to maintain the commitment forecast until the end of this year.

According to the Special Secretariat of Finance of the Ministry of Economy, without the R $ 809 million that had not yet been used from the reserve, the need for contingency of the 3rd quarter to the executive branch would be R $ 2,251.8 billion.

The figures were informed by Special Finance Secretary Waldery Rodrigues Júnior during a press conference presenting the Bimonthly Revenue and Expense Report for the third quarter of 2019.

The Secretariat detailed that there was a fall of R $ 5,956.6 billion in forecast revenue inflow. Compulsory expenses decreased by R $ 3,470.7 billion. As R $ 219 million were excluded, referring to the compensation of states and municipalities, the fiscal effort of all the necessary powers was R $ 2,267.0 billion.

Of this total, R $ 2,251.8 is allocated to the distribution of the variation of the limits to the Executive Power and R $ 15.2 million to the Distribution to the Legislative, Judicial and Public Prosecution Powers of the Union.

Discretionary Expenses

As the contingency reaches exclusively the discretionary expenses, which according to the previous bimonthly report were at the level of R $ 97.630 billion, they now go to R $ 95.3 billion for this year.

“We started 2019 with R $ 126 billion for non-compulsory expenses, but today they are at a very low level. Our intention is that it be recomposed, ”said Waldery, citing measures that are underway to enable the economy to reactivate, such as the New Social Security, tax reform, the new gas market and actions in the area of ​​sanitation, which should have an important impact on the expectations of economic agents.

“These measures improve revenue awareness among many channels so that we have a larger budget space without jeopardizing any action or program. But the report is reliable about the real situation in terms of the Union's revenue and expenditure, ”he noted.

There is still no definition of which or which Ministries will be impacted by the new contingency. This information will be published, according to the legal deadline, in presidential decree next week.

GDP

During the press conference, the change in the economic parameters grid of the Ministry of Economy was reiterated, with GDP forecast for 2019 falling from 1.6% (as shown in the last report) to 0.81%.

“The numbers are in line with market projections. We act with all transparency and remain optimistic that there will be changes in expectations, a reversal in the GDP growth rate and substantial economic growth from 2020 onwards through structural changes in the economy, ”he said.

 FGTS

Regarding the changes being made to improve workers' access to FGTS and PIS / Pasep funds, the secretary said the government should announce the measures later this week.

“We are preparing with great zeal, contemplating mainly changes on the supply side. The measures will allow the correct allocation of workers' resources and bring greater economic efficiency, ”said Waldery.

Tax rules

Still at the event, the special secretary signaled that there may be changes in the current rule of thumb. According to him, there are constant dialogues between the economic team and the National Congress.

“The golden rule is welcomed from the conceptual point of view of allowing debt for investment purposes. There are talks with several parliamentarians to seek structural solutions not only to the golden rule, but to the fiscal rules as a whole ”, he concluded.