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Central Government records deficit of R $ 11.5 billion in June

PUBLIC ACCOUNTS

Secretary emphasizes that New Social Security is fundamental to the fiscal scenario, but that new measures need to be approved

The Central Government - which includes the National Treasury, Central Bank and Social Security accounts - registered a primary deficit of R $ 11.5 billion in June compared to a deficit of R $ 16.4 billion in the same month of the year. past.

Year-to-date, the primary deficit reached R $ 28.9 billion compared to a deficit of R $ 31.6 billion in 2018, an improvement of 12.3% in real terms. The primary deficit is the negative result in public accounts disregarding the interest payment on public debt.

The figures were released by the National Treasury on Friday (26/7), at a news conference in Brasilia. On the occasion, the substitute secretary of the Treasury, Otavio Ladeira, pointed out that the forecast is that the discretionary spending will fall to the historical low by the end of this year. This is because this expense is heavily pressured by mandatory expenses, such as payment of social security benefits and compensation of civil servants, for example.  

In the last 12 months, the Central Government registered a deficit of R $ 119.7 billion. The target set for 2019 is a primary deficit of R $ 139 billion, around 1.94% of GDP.

Social security

In the first half of this year, the National Treasury and Central Bank accounts had a surplus of R $ 66.9 billion, while Social Security (RGPS) remained in deficit at R $ 95.7 billion.

In this sense, Ladeira anticipated that the government's expectations are that the Social Security deficit (RGPS) will reach around R $ 213.8 billion at the end of 2019. A number that, added to the deficit of civil and military civil servants should reach R $ 100.4 billion this year. The total Social Security deficit is expected to reach R $ 314.2 billion, a record in the sum of these two expenses, which would represent around 4.4% of GDP.

Given the scenario, the deputy secretary of the National Treasury emphasized the importance of concluding New Social Security approval for the stability of public accounts.

“Pension reform is coming to make matters worse, to ensure that social security spending will no longer increase in the coming years. But it is no guarantee that we will be able to reduce mandatory expenses, ”explained Otávio Ladeira. "We will need new measures, important measures for this reduction," he emphasized. 

Bundling

The amount of the deposit - resources destined to the ministries that are not being effectively used - reached R $ 15 billion in June. The most registered ministries were Defense, Health and Education, in addition to parliamentary amendments.

Discretionary Expenses

In the last 12 months, discretionary expenses reached R $ 119.9 billion, the same level as in October 2019. Considering the contingency suggested in the 3rd quarter revaluation, released earlier this week, discretionary expenses should reach the end of 2019. R $ 95.4 billion, the lowest in the historical series.

Golden Rule

The Treasury's current projection of the Golden Rule - a constitutional provision that does not allow the government to perform credit operations (debts) in excess of capital expenditures (investments and others) - indicates the government's sufficiency to comply by 2019. R $ 87.9 billion.

The secretary stressed that the approval of Bill No. 4/2019 (PLN4) - which guaranteed the opening of supplementary credit at $ 248 billion - will make the government able to comply with the provision in 2019, and use surplus sources, such as result of the Central Bank and the early return of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) to partially cover the insufficiency of the Golden Rule Margin in 2020.