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Central Government primary result records deficit of R $ 6 billion in July

NATIONAL TREASURE

Number points small improvement compared to last year, when it was at $ 7.5 billion

The Central Government primary result ended July with a deficit of R $ 6 billion, compared to the deficit of R $ 7.5 billion (nominal) observed in the same month of the previous year. The National Treasury and the Central Bank had surpluses of R $ 10.1 billion, while the Social Security (RGPS) presented a deficit of R $ 16.1 billion. The data were released this Thursday (29/8) by the secretary of the National Treasury, Mansueto Almeida.

According to the secretary, in the comparison of July 2018 and July 2019, it is possible to notice a "small improvement". This is mainly due to the R $ 4.3 billion increase in net revenue, in real terms. The variation is due to the R $ 4.1 billion increase in income tax and revenue in July 2019 of R $ 1.4 billion related to port concessions.

The data also indicate an increase of R $ 3.6 billion in total expenditure, mainly concentrated in Social Security Benefits (R $ 1.6 billion) and Discretionary Expenses (R $ 1.5 billion).

With the result released today, the accumulated primary deficit this year is $ 35.2 billion, compared to a deficit of $ 39.1 billion in the same period of 2018, in nominal terms. This corresponds to a 13.4% improvement in real terms, being the best result since 2015.

The result of 2019 is composed of a surplus of R $ 75.9 billion from the National Treasury and the Central Bank, and a deficit of R $ 111.1 billion in Social Security. “The Social Security deficit is what determines the Central Government deficit,” explains Mansueto.

Discretionary

The downward trend in discretionary spending observed through July is likely to continue for the remainder of the year. The Budgetary and Financial Programming Decree published in July (nº 9.943) indicates that for the fulfillment of the primary result target, these expenses must reach a maximum of R $ 94.9 billion.

"This level of annual spending, corrected by the IPCA, represents the lowest since the beginning of the historical series in 2009," said Mansueto, explaining that this means very low public investment. It also shows that the fiscal problem is concentrated on compulsory expenditure. "No other country in the world has the level of linking and indexing that Brazil has," he said.

Of the R $ 128.8 billion spent on discretionary spending last year, R $ 48.4 billion went to investments. The remainder is under “other expenses”, which include funding, amendments, constitutional expenditure on health and education, as well as public policies with economic grants (examples: Minha Casa Minha Vida and scholarships).

Mandatory

In contrast to discretionary expenses, there is the automatic growth of compulsory expenses, especially pension and personnel expenses.

"The budget problem is not the ceiling of spending, but the growth of mandatory spending, which increased $ 200 billion in three years," said the secretary, adding that "it is necessary to deepen the discussion on what determines the growth of spending. mandatory ”.

Although the budget has about R $ 34 billion contingent, Mansueto rules out the possibility of increasing the Remaining Payable (RAP) at the end of the year.

"This risk, for now, does not exist," he said. "Contingency means blocking the commitment limit and for that to become Remains Payable, spending has to be committed." This year the balance of Remainder Payable should be canceled, according to decree published last year.

Mansueto also pointed out that resource pooling, caused by rigid resource allocation, remains high. Sum of R $ 12.1 billion, compared to R $ 15 billion registered last year.

Complete data of the Central Government Tax Result are available at http://www.tesouro.fazenda.gov.br/resultado-do-tesouro-nacional